AFTER a decade of stability, the AFL is ready to precipitate another shake-up. An old volcano is emitting ominous rumbling noises. So peaceful had things been in the foothills over recent years that one could imagine that life might be like this forever. It was wishful thinking, though, that ignored certain realities.

The first of these is that the AFL for some time has been determined to establish clubs in southern Queensland and the western suburbs of Sydney. The second is that it still runs a football competition with nine professional teams in one city.

The establishment of the intended two clubs in the northern states, in theory at least, would serve to expand the game's economy. Clearly, the AFL's preferred option is to kill two birds with one stone. In the first instance, it will do its best to muscle the Kangaroos to the Gold Coast.

While this scenario poses the ultimate test of the resilience of the old North Melbourne Football Club, it is also the acid test for Andrew Demetriou's AFL. Perhaps it was the relocation by stealth of South Melbourne in 1982 that caused it — perhaps it existed before that — but there long has been a lack of public fondness for the game's senior administration.

Like the Government at the coming election, the league must deal with the perception that, on some big issues, it is "tricky". When Demetriou is described as "clever", chances are it carries the same connotation as when Kevin Rudd applies the word to John Howard.

For many a true fan, only family is more important than footy club. To seek to take the club away is about as provocative as trying to remove a cub from a lioness. The AFL will be taking on another terrible fight. It has been thrice bitten but the game has made great strides in the process. It has come at a cost to the men who pushed the envelope.

Allen Aylett, architect of South Melbourne's relocation to Sydney, was booed at a grand final and was frozen out soon afterwards when the old VFL administration was rationalised. Ross Oakley, who sought to take four Victorian clubs into mergers, received death threats. As Demetriou seeks to deliver a death sentence to another Melbourne team, he will look out at the baying supporters of a club for which he once played.

One of Demetriou's most significant mentors is commission member Bill Kelty. When the merger debate was in full and fiery swing in the early 1990s, Kelty said in a radio interview he believed the Victorian clubs were treasures that should be preserved for all time. Either there has been willing debate at the commission table or Kelty has had a significant change of heart.

But then the father of football mergers, Graeme Samuel, also had a change of heart. In the early '90s, he had spoken enthusiastically of merging six Melbourne clubs into three new entities. Four years ago, when he stepped down from the AFL Commission, Samuel was asked what such a move would have done for the competition. He replied contritely: "Probably torn the heart out of it."

In the same interview, Samuel said the strengthening of the financial position of the AFL would ensure the survival of 10 Victorian teams for the foreseeable future. He described the amount of money required to sustain the struggling clubs as "very, very small bikkies". That was before the current, lucrative television rights agreement was struck.

It all goes to show how much the ground on the merger/relocation issue can shift, even around those most firmly rooted in their ideology. It is a tremendously difficult and emotional issue and there is no reason to believe it will be any easier when the Kangaroos' moment of truth arrives.

Demetriou's task amid all this is to do what is best for football. Yet how does one assess that? The only certainties about his preferred course are a fierce backlash and major long-term financial commitment. Less certain is the matter of whether Queensland, still very much a rugby league state, and where soccer, basketball and rugby union are also significant players, is the right place for a second AFL club, let alone that club's salvation.