IT'S hard to believe that after 25 years of the Swans in Sydney, we can say there is still some uncertainty about the foothold AFL has in the Emerald City.

You certainly wouldn't believe it if you focused on the achievements the Swans have enjoyed in recent years - the on-field victories translating to off-field profit, popularity and a genuine feeling that we have adopted the game.

But - and it's a big but - when you talk about bringing another team into town in 2012, the question remains: Is our biggest city big enough to accommodate two AFL teams?

It's not a simple yes-no answer.

If by 2012 the Swans are still consistent contenders for the flag, and if the second team could establish itself in the races for the finals in its early years, then, yes, it would work. After all, figures show that in this city, fans are happy to go to the games if their teams are doing well, but when they struggle - hardcore supporters aside - they stay away.

And, unlike other football codes in Australia, with their drafts and salary caps, success in AFL is more cyclical. Because they have been at the top for a while, you can only expect that Sydney will soon have to spend some time battling to make the finals. What would happen then? How would the Swans' struggles affect the popularity of the game, and in turn on how a second team is received?

Crowd numbers for the Swans are strong, having averaged about 37,000 the past few years. They were big back in the mid-1980s, too, when Sydney were a force, but when the victories disappeared so too did the fans, and crowd numbers dropped to just over 12,000 a game in 1993. What will happen in the next slide? Sure, there is a bigger base now of "real" supporters, but going to the AFL may not be the thing to do on a Sunday afternoon any more. If two teams were competing, notably for off-field dollars in what is still a fairly modest market, you could end up seeing two Sydney clubs put under extreme financial pressure.

There have been significant inroads into Sydney for the game. The AFL has poured money into Sydney, and coupled with the success of the Swans, there have been benefits - notably more kids playing the sport.

The western suburbs have always been a vast market the AFL has wanted to tap into. The decision to pour millions into building a 10,000-seat stadium at Blacktown, which initially was to be used for pre-season games for the Swans, showed the commitment and determination.

There is plenty of support for the game in the western suburbs. When the Swans have played their blockbuster matches at the Olympic Stadium, the games have been well attended, and many of those fans are residents of the west.

But therein lies another problem: the Swans have a contract with ANZ (Olympic) Stadium until 2016 to play three and four games at the ground. What impact would a second team, based in Blacktown but playing several games at the stadium, have on the crowds that go to that venue for Swans games?

The AFL put a second team in Perth and it worked. They put a second team in Adelaide and it worked. Both were known as "AFL cities". When is the best time for a second Sydney team? "I think the best test for me was when the Swans played Collingwood, I think, in the first final [last year], and we went head to head [on television] with rugby league and we just got smashed," Swans chairman Richard Colless said last year when asked about a second team

"You've got the local team that played in the last two grand finals and the most supported team in the country, and I think we were the 10th-highest rating program on the Saturday night. I think what it did was just put into sharp focus that rugby league, when we go head to head, is far and away the dominant game in this part of the world. I think the capacity to support a second team is still a fair way off."

One team in one regional city works perfectly in sport - any sport. And when it comes to AFL, Sydney is still something of a regional city.