FOOTBALL tipping is a perilous exercise, picking the card these days a cause for major celebration. And with the possible exception of Leigh Matthews and his Brisbane Lions side, there wouldn't have been too many people popping the corks after getting eight right last weekend.
The Lions' massive win over Collingwood was a shock and if upsets don't get you as a tipster, injuries probably will. How many would have changed their tip from Hawthorn to the Kangaroos on Sunday had they known "Buddy" Franklin and Sam Mitchell were late withdrawals? Mark me down.
That's how delicately poised and volatile the competition is at the moment. Take Brisbane, for example. The Lions were 12th and seemingly out of contention when this column first attempted to tip the rest of the season and the final ladder a fortnight ago. They're still 11th, but now just half-a-game out of the eight and, despite a tough draw, they're a real chance, given their current form.
Two weeks ago, St Kilda looked capable of finishing the home-and-away season on 13 wins yet still missing the finals through its poor percentage. Now I've got the Saints making it despite winning only 12.
For that they can thank Adelaide, one of five teams I originally had in a logjam of five teams on 52 points. The Crows have dropped both games since and, on form, can't be tipped against local rival Port Adelaide this week, nor Geelong at Skilled Stadium the next.
On that basis, just 10 wins and a finish of 10th looms for the preliminary finalist of the past two seasons, a sizeable fall from grace and cause for real concern for coach Neil Craig given the average age of the Crows' list.
Essendon out for St Kilda is the one change to the composition of a likely top eight. Positions within it, though, are a different matter altogether. West Coast looked decidedly vulnerable a fortnight back after its sixth loss in nine games. But what a difference personnel can make.
The five "ins" for the Eagles' clash with Sydney were Ben Cousins, Daniel Kerr, Ashley Hansen, Tyson Stenglein and Brent Staker. Fairly handy.
All have had a huge impact, Stenglein helping to allow Cousins and Kerr to run amok while reducing the burden on Chris Judd's dodgy groin, Hansen and Staker the badly needed support for Quinten Lynch up forward.
Two weeks back, a Western Bulldogs' win over the Eagles at Telstra Dome was far from the fantasy it became by half-time last Friday night. Two more games at the Dome, against the Roos and St Kilda, look a lot more winnable, too. I had John Worsfold's team finishing seventh on that original ladder. Third, at the very least, looks a lot more like it now.
It's Hawthorn looking as fragile at the moment as the Eagles did before the return of that fabulous five. As good as Franklin and Mitchell are, they can't be expected to make as dramatic an overall improvement to the Hawks, for whom the season appears to be starting to take a real toll on young, slight bodies and minds.
Their draw is a big challenge, too, Essendon this week then Brisbane and Port Adelaide, both in top form. Sydney to finish off a couple of weeks later. For the moment, I'm keeping the faith.
I still can't see the Lions making it, their last five games taking in four against top-eight teams. That didn't matter against Collingwood, though, and at least the likes of Jonathan Brown and Jared Brennan aren't going to die wondering.
How they'd kill for the Magpies' run home, the hapless bottom three of Carlton, Richmond and Melbourne next on the agenda, out-of-sorts Adelaide in the final round, Sydney the week before clearly the biggest test.
I've changed only three tips over the remaining five rounds from two weeks ago — Port now beating Adelaide this weekend, Brisbane to defeat Sydney at the Gabba in round 20 and those ominous-looking Eagles to beat St Kilda at the Dome the following week.
That's the theory, anyway. But there's no such thing as a certainty anymore and, as last Saturday night proved yet again, always a Brisbane lurking to throw a decent-sized spanner in the tipping works.
