If footy writers could accurately predict the season ahead, they would all be off collecting their winnings down at the TAB and heading to the beach to enjoy retirement. After many sleepless nights the poor lambs bravely put their predictions down in print. Only a cruel, vindictive colleague would then dig them up and poke fun at what they said this time last year. So, without further ado, we give you The Age Time Capsule 2007.
THE problem with time capsules is that they have to be unearthed. When opened the contents provide a snapshot of the thoughts and dreams of those who put it into the ground. And its contents can teach us lessons for the future.
So, as we are about to bury the 2008 Age footy time capsule, let's analyse last year's predictions to see what we can learn.
First, it seems one should never trust Fremantle.
In 2006 the Dockers stormed into the finals playing direct, attacking football. On the back of this, every Age football writer had Fremantle in their top eight going into 2007, with five nominating it to finish first. Fremantle spent last year kicking sideways, the coach resigned after round 15 and it finished 11th.
And if you should never trust the Dockers, it should also be the law that you never underestimate the Kangaroos — a mistake made by Greg Baum, Martin Boulton, Michael Gleeson, Samantha Lane, Jake Niall and Emma Quayle, all of whom picked North for the wooden spoon.
(Special mention goes to Lyall Johnson and Geoff McClure whose choices for last place were Port Adelaide and Collingwood, respectively.)
It is hard to be critical of those who were pessimistic about the Kangaroos' chances. Nathan Thompson was out for the season, they finished 14th in 2006 and Arden Street had burnt to the ground.
Unfortunately, we all forgot that pesky Shinboner spirit.
One footy writer, asked the other day who would be the Kangaroos of 2008, the team that surprises everybody, said: "Probably the Kangaroos."
Of course, Dean Laidley copped it from the experts in the "coaches who will be on the move next year" category, but we have already discussed the Shinboner thing. Laidley coached in 2007 as he played: expertly, well prepared and without fear — yet always underrated. And it's quite likely Martin Blake and Johnson would like to have back their predictions that Mark Thompson would leave Geelong. The Cats, of course, caught out a lot of our writers. Samantha Lane was the only one to have them in the top four.
There are many more of these instances from last year's predictions. There are rising players who flopped, stars on the slide who burned brightly and a Brownlow Medal prediction who didn't record a vote.
So what else can we learn for 2008 by dredging up the past? Well something most already know: football is unpredictable.
Unpredictability is the reason so much copy is written about it, so much is said about it. It is why it captivates us, because we never know when up is up and Geelong is Geelong. Martin Flanagan wrote in Saturday's paper that "Footy's mad. You've got to understand that. No sane person would, for example, follow Richmond."
This exercise of reviewing last year's predictions is more than unfair to those involved in the time capsule.
So it would be unfair to point out that Lyall Johnson had Richmond in his final eight, and Kent Kingsley as his biggest improver, and better to remind readers that Johnson suggested Ben Cousins would be "on the slide" in 2008.
And it would be unfair to note Gleeson fell for the Fremantle trap, having it finishing first. It would be fairer to those who have to write about a sport as impossible to predict as footy to note Gleeson's headline he would most like to see: "I'm coming home - Judd". What did we learn from 2007's time capsule? Watch this space.
2008 PREDICTIONS
GREG BAUM
TOP EIGHT Hawthorn, Geelong, St Kilda, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Brisbane Lions, North Melbourne.
WOODEN SPOON Richmond.
BROWNLOW MEDAL Heath Shaw (Collingwood).
RISING STAR Josh Kennedy (Hawthorn).
ON THE SLIDE NAB Cup.
WHERE WILL BEN COUSINS BE IN 2009? In a better place.
UNLIKELY HEADLINE Oxen need injection of pace: Malthouse.
HEADLINE YOU’D LIKE TO SEE Libba in for Gold Coast post.
BIG ISSUE Tanking.
SOLUTION Caveat emptor.
JAKE NIALL
TOP EIGHT Geelong, St Kilda, Hawthorn, West Coast, Sydney, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions.
WOODEN SPOON Richmond.
BROWNLOW MEDAL Gary Ablett (Geelong).
RISING STAR Matthew Leuenberger (Brisbane Lions).
ON THE SLIDE Shannon Grant (North Melbourne).
WHERE WILL BEN COUSINS BE IN 2009? Tanned, shirtless, retired from footy, giving New Idea his "tale of anguish".
UNLIKELY HEADLINE Armani hails Hawks jumper.
HEADLINE YOU’D LIKE TO SEE AFL shifts blockbuster from Dome.
BIG ISSUE Problems with expanding into Gold Coast, western Sydney from scratch.
SOLUTION Don’t rush expansion. 18 teams is too many.
CAROLINE WILSON
TOP EIGHT Geelong, Collingwood, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Melbourne, Adelaide, Essendon, Port Adelaide.
WOODEN SPOON Richmond.
BROWNLOW MEDAL Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn).
RISING STAR Cyril Rioli (Hawthorn).
ON THE SLIDE Manuka Oval and the long-term prospects of AFL fixtures in Canberra.
WHERE WILL BEN COUSINS BE IN 2009? Not playing AFL football.
UNLIKELY HEADLINE Richard Pratt speaks.
HEADLINE YOU’D LIKE TO SEE Tigers ban hair formula for winning formula.
BIG ISSUE Football clubs and their fans wishing to lose in the second half of the season.
SOLUTION Forget new systems. Scrap the priority pick.
ROHAN CONNOLLY
TOP EIGHT Geelong, St Kilda, Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, West Coast, Port Adelaide, Essendon.
WOODEN SPOON Richmond.
BROWNLOW MEDAL Daniel Kerr (West Coast).
RISING STAR Matthew Leuenberger (Brisbane Lions).
ON THE SLIDE Peter Bell (Fremantle).
WHERE WILL BEN COUSINS BE IN 2009? Playing for a Melbourne-based AFL club.
UNLIKELY HEADLINE Tigers eye top spot.
HEADLINE YOU’D LIKE TO SEE “Buddy” Franklin stays home, goes to bed 9pm.
BIG ISSUE Dealing with “tanking” hysteria.
SOLUTION Refine priority pick system, wait for hysterics to find new “crisis” to rant about.
MICHAEL GLEESON
TOP EIGHT St Kilda, Geelong, Fremantle, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Sydney.
WOODEN SPOON Melbourne.
BROWNLOW MEDAL Joel Selwood (Geelong).
RISING STAR Matthew Leuenberger (Brisbane Lions).
ON THE SLIDE Melbourne.
WHERE WILL BEN COUSINS BE IN 2009? Still banned by the AFL and retired.
UNLIKELY HEADLINE North Melbourne made the right call: Demetriou.
HEADLINE YOU’D LIKE TO SEE I am unfit to be president: Pratt.
BIG ISSUE Perception of tanking.
SOLUTION Award priority pick after round 11 if side has only two wins (and only four in previous season) and put bottom four sides in lottery for No. 1 pick.
MARTIN BLAKE
TOP EIGHT St Kilda, Geelong, Collingwood, Sydney, Hawthorn, Brisbane Lions, West Coast, Port Adelaide.
WOODEN SPOON Richmond.
BROWNLOW MEDAL Joel Corey (Geelong).
RISING STAR Tom Hawkins (Geelong).
ON THE SLIDE Peter “Spida” Everitt may have gone just one season too long on those wonky knees.
WHERE WILL BEN COUSINS BE IN 2009? Which team would take the risk of him bringing the tumult he brought upon West Coast? Answer: Quite possibly none of them.
UNLIKELY HEADLINE Common sense takes hold as fans, clubs, industry agree: the game is good.
HEADLINE YOU’D LIKE TO SEE Brownlow change: key position players now eligible, says AFL.
BIG ISSUE Outside of tanking, cheating, drugs, player misbehaviour, the rules and the tribunal system, the fact that we spend too much time talking about it. Overexposure, that is.
SOLUTION Let’s all get a life.
PETER HANLON
TOP EIGHT St Kilda, Geelong, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Collingwood, Brisbane Lions, West Coast, Western Bulldogs.
WOODEN SPOON Melbourne.
BROWNLOW MEDAL Justin Koschitzke (St Kilda).
RISING STAR Courtenay Dempsey (Essendon).
ON THE SLIDE Shinboner spirit.
WHERE WILL BEN COUSINS BE IN 2009? Selling “Eagles 2006 premiers” stubby holders at the Saint-Ouen flea market in Paris.
UNLIKELY HEADLINE Soccer will be our national game: Demetriou.
HEADLINE YOU’D LIKE TO SEE I can’t believe they bought that five-year plan line: Wallace.
BIG ISSUE Losing fans to grass-roots football.
SOLUTION Play fortnightly “grass-roots” games at Princes Park, after replacing the Legends Stand with a terrace.
SAMANTHA LANE
TOP EIGHT Geelong, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Sydney, Kangaroos.
WOODEN SPOON Richmond.
BROWNLOW MEDAL Daniel Kerr (West Coast).
RISING STAR Tom Hawkins (Geelong).
ON THE SLIDE Adelaide.
WHERE WILL BEN COUSINS BE IN 2009? Surfing somewhere.
UNLIKELY HEADLINE Tanking breakthrough: Demetriou admits he can be delusional too.
HEADLINE YOU’D LIKE TO SEE North Melbourne defies odds, registers record profit.
BIG ISSUE The setting of rules that don’t just tell footballers how they should play football but how they should live their lives.
SOLUTION Let the country’s law enforcers handle the law breakers. Rules and punishments don’t need to be drawn up in order for examples to be set.
GEOFF McCLURE
TOP EIGHT Geelong, St Kilda, Adelaide, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Sydney, Port Adelaide.
WOODEN SPOON Melbourne.
BROWNLOW MEDAL Jonathan Brown (Brisbane Lions).
RISING STAR Kurt Tippett (Adelaide).
ON THE SLIDE West Coast.
WHERE WILL BEN COUSINS BE IN 2009? Collingwood.
UNLIKELY HEADLINE Everyone loves Libba.
HEADLINE YOU’D LIKE TO SEE Blues a force again.
BIG ISSUE Tanking.
SOLUTION Get rid of priority picks and put bottom six sides in a raffle to decide top draft picks order.
MARTIN BOULTON
TOP EIGHT Geelong, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, St Kilda, Collingwood, Sydney, North Melbourne.
WOODEN SPOON Richmond.
BROWNLOW MEDAL Chris Judd (Carlton).
RISING STAR Andrejs Everitt (Western Bulldogs). ON THE SLIDE Peter Everitt (Sydney).
WHERE WILL BEN COUSINS BE IN 2009? Richmond.
UNLIKELY HEADLINE AFL boss snared in betting plunge on Swans.
HEADLINE YOU’D LIKE TO SEE Tommy’s back — Hafey to coach league’s 17th team.
BIG ISSUE Broadening appeal of the game nationally.
SOLUTION Attracting teenagers who can help footy evolve by bringing existing skills to the game.
KAREN LYON
TOP EIGHT Geelong, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, West Coast, North Melbourne.
WOODEN SPOON Richmond.
BROWNLOW MEDAL Gary Ablett (Geelong).
RISING STAR Cyril Rioli (Hawthorn).
ON THE SLIDE Adelaide.
WHERE WILL BEN COUSINS BE IN 2009? In the headlines but unfortunately not on the footy field.
UNLIKELY HEADLINE Demetriou and Roos, best of friends.
HEADLINE YOU’D LIKE TO SEE Big V back for good!
BIG ISSUE Tanking. The season hasn’t even started and it’s already the main story.
SOLUTION Revamp the draft system so the bottom eight teams go into a lottery for the first eight draft picks.
LYALL JOHNSON
TOP EIGHT Geelong, Fremantle, St Kilda, West Coast, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Essendon.
WOODEN SPOON Richmond.
BROWNLOW MEDAL Gary Ablett (Geelong).
RISING STAR Travis Boak (Port Adelaide).
ON THE SLIDE Draft system.
WHERE WILL BEN COUSINS BE IN 2009? Miraculously, playing in the AFL.
UNLIKELY HEADLINE Players and spectators agree, they really love the hands-in-the back rule.
HEADLINE YOU’D LIKE TO SEE Tigers win flag.
BIG ISSUE Whether to expand to 18 clubs.
SOLUTION Consensus among players and officials says do it, and the by-product should be that North Melbourne is saved.
LEN JOHNSON
TOP EIGHT Geelong, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Fremantle, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs.
WOODEN SPOON Richmond.
BROWNLOW MEDAL Daniel Kerr (West Coast).
RISING STAR Courtenay Dempsey (Essendon).
ON THE SLIDE Sydney.
WHERE WILL BEN COUSINS BE IN 2009? Playing in the WAFL.
UNLIKELY HEADLINE It’s only a minor rule change. We can adapt: Mick Malthouse.
HEADLINE YOU’D LIKE TO SEE It’s only a minor rule change. We can adapt: Mick Malthouse.
BIG ISSUE The lop-sided draw, which is inequitable, lacks integrity and creates so many other problems.
SOLUTION If teams can’t play everyone twice at least use a fairer system for determining ladder positions.
EMMA QUAYLE
TOP EIGHT St Kilda, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Essendon.
WOODEN SPOON Richmond.
BROWNLOW MEDAL Luke Hodge (Hawthorn).
RISING STAR Leroy Jetta (Essendon).
ON THE SLIDE Sydney.
WHERE WILL BEN COUSINS BE IN 2009? The latest addition to the Home and Away cast.
UNLIKELY HEADLINE All credit today goes to Buddy, he won the game for us off his own boot: Clarkson.
HEADLINE YOU’D LIKE TO SEE No team eligible for priority pick in 2008 (after round 12).
BIG ISSUE Expansion.
SOLUTION Drumming up enough support in NSW so that a second team there will work.
NICK SHERIDAN
TOP EIGHT Geelong, West Coast, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Collingwood, Essendon.
WOODEN SPOON Richmond.
BROWNLOW MEDAL Daniel Kerr (West Coast).
RISING STAR Cyril Rioli (Hawthorn).
ON THE SLIDE Fremantle.
WHERE WILL BEN COUSINS BE IN 2009? Playing AFL.
UNLIKELY HEADLINE Tiger fans hail Wallace’s grand vision.
HEADLINE YOU’D LIKE TO SEE AFL drops hands in- the-back rule, admits "we were wrong".
BIG ISSUE Hysteria over drug testing.
SOLUTION Restrict the focus to game related offences (performance enhancing drugs only).
