AT THE halfway mark of the season, the Saints had won only four games and their season seemed shot. New coach Ross Lyon was receiving a baptism of fire and there were plenty who thought the move to replace Grant Thomas had been a bad one.

But there were genuine reasons for the Saints' poor showing. Injuries had cruelled them almost as much as they had Melbourne; the Saints couldn't get anywhere near a full-strength team on the park. On top of that, there was a new coach with a new game plan. It was going to take some time.

Lyon had taken over a team that didn't have the fitness base or the physical standards that he had become used to in his time as an assistant at Sydney. There was also a group of midfielders who were predominantly "downhill" skiers.

That is, they were very good at attacking and running forward when things were going their way, but when the tide turned against them and they had to push back to fill space and be accountable, they struggled.

Lyon's game plan was designed to win finals games in which the pressure is more intense and goals just can't be given away. It took a while for the St Kilda players to adjust. They became too defensive. Overreacted. Too many numbers pushed back. It was ridiculous to see Fraser Gehrig and Nick Riewoldt in the defensive 50.

When the Saints took possession in the back half, they had no one forward to launch attacks to. So they chipped the ball around the back half with slow, meaningless foot passes. Goals dried up with the average just 11 after round 11.

The mid-season break came at a good time. It gave the players and coaches a chance to suck in and breathe deep. They had to take more risks, but not ease up on the defensive pressure that was slowly improving.

A massive confidence-boosting win over West Coast at Subiaco Oval put the coach and his crew back on track. Other than Geelong, the Saints have been the hot team of the past five rounds.

They have lost only one game and that was one against Collingwood that they are still kicking themselves over. A win over Carlton today will make it five of six and put them in the affirmative and perhaps the eight.

The Saints can expect the Blues, under new coaches Brett Ratten and Barry Mitchell, to load their back line. Ratten will ensure that there will be no more 100-point defeats, so it won't be so easy for the Sainters.

So just where has the improvement come from for Lyon's men?

There are many factors. The injury list has shortened. Key defenders Max Hudghton and Matt Maguire now shore up the back line. That has freed up Jason Blake and Leigh Fisher to give extra run to the midfield. It also enables Sam Fisher to take a less dangerous third tall forward so he can be full of rebound off half-back.

Robert Harvey has got over his hamstring strains and, with the addition of an improved Shane Birrs and the talented Xavier Clarke, the midfield has far more options. Now the Saints are playing on quickly and working the ball through the corridor instead of going slow and wide.

Their goal average has gone from 11 to 14. The handball average has lifted considerably. Players are encouraged to run and carry the ball at every opportunity. As a result, the inside 50 entries have increased, as has the conversion.

There have been subtle changes to players' roles, too. Steven Baker has become a tagging midfielder. He thrives on the challenge of beating the best and gives much-needed speed in the middle. His spot in defence has been taken by an unknown but desperate kid called Jayden Attard. The groin-hampered Luke Ball is spending more time up forward, where his brain will create goals, and Stephen Milne is becoming more of a team player as he earns possessions further up field.

It's quite possible the Saints could charge into the finals by winning nine of 11 games. Imagine their confidence then. That, combined with Lyon's strong, accountable game plan would make them formidable opponents.