COLLINGWOOD is clearly a team that thrives on a challenge. The Magpies inevitably seem to pull out their best when the odds are clearly stacked most tellingly against them.
Hence their capacity already this season to have beaten the otherwise unbeatable Geelong. To have rebounded from the potentially fatal Heath Shaw affair and the subsequent club-imposed suspension of him and Alan Didak. And on Saturday, to have beaten Adelaide in a final at the Crows' own AAMI Stadium, a second win in an interstate final in two years.
Now there's another mini-mountain to climb. To become only the third team since the revamping of the final eight in 2000 to reach a preliminary final from the bottom half of the eight. And make no mistake, these Pies are more than capable of doing so.
They've already beaten Saturday night's opponent, St Kilda, twice this season. They'll have an extra day to prepare than the Saints, and certainly won't have to work as hard to keep the mood around the club buoyant, Ross Lyon's team the latest in a long line to have had Geelong sink the slipper of harsh reality into their standing in the AFL pecking order.
They'll also have some genuine claims based on something other than blind hope that they just might be able to at least offer the rampant Cats a contest should they make it all the way to the grand final.
The biggest problem for Collingwood in this scenario, of course, is that it will play Hawthorn in the preliminary final should it knock over the Saints. And as much as the Magpies have been able to stretch the Cats, they haven't come remotely close to pushing the Hawks this season, two meetings resulting in losses by 65, then 54 points.
The Magpies don't mind the one-on-one stuff at all, part of the explanation for their continued dominance of Sydney. Against the teams who play spare men, and like to zone off, a la Alastair Clarkson's side, it's a different story. But at least Hawthorn or Collingwood would be far from lost causes against the Cats come grand final day. Frankly, it's hard to say the same about the Saints, the Western Bulldogs or Sydney.
Geelong has 41 wins from its past 43 games. The Magpies wiped them in one of those losses. The other was by five points. The Cats yesterday dismissed St Kilda's attempt to challenge the status quo with contempt, only inaccuracy costing them a margin that might have been more than 100 points at one stage.
Even Lady Luck doesn't seem capable of interfering with the prospect of a second successive Geelong flag. Brent Prismall is desperately unfortunate, having finally won a spot in this great team, to have surrendered it, quite possibly for most of next season as well, after rupturing knee ligaments. Paul Chapman has concerns over a hamstring and quad.
Chapman is a great player and would be a significant loss. But another premiership pair in James Kelly and David Wojcinski are fairly handy replacements.
Perhaps the most we can expect is for an opponent to make the Cats work considerably harder for the honour than they had to yesterday, when they simply brushed off the Saints like a pack of pesky schoolboys. In difficult conditions that required strength and commitment, Geelong had so much more, reflected in 123 contested possessions to 91, double the Saints' amount of contested marks, and an emphatic 37-27 win in the clearance count.
That's a drubbing in the "physicality" stakes by any measure, and a real concern for Lyon coming up against a team that has beaten his for contested ball in both previous meetings this season, and that has its hardest nut and skipper Scott Burns set to return this week.
The other qualifying final loser, the Western Bulldogs, have their concerns, too, of course, following Friday night's drubbing at Hawthorn's capable hands. But the Dogs will be happier coming up against Sydney than they would have North Melbourne, two wins over the Swans already this season some cause for comfort, as is the advantage of an extra day to prepare, and its opponent having to front up after a taxing four quarters on a soggy ANZ Stadium.
The Swans' win over North Melbourne was arguably as good as they can get. The Bulldogs' pitiful effort on Friday night was as poor as Rodney Eade's side has been since its miserable end to 2007. It's hard not to see the Dogs bouncing back.
So might the Saints, but doing so might well be a far bigger ask. Collingwood is clearly one of the better-credentialled teams the bottom half of the eight has had for some time. To overcome it, St Kilda won't be able to rely upon a better preparation, nor better recent form.
In fact, in this week's formguide, history is about the Saints' only friend. And perhaps not even that, given their opponent seems to enjoy challenging even that.





