A FEW weeks ago, it was the final eight which was supposed to be settled. After major stumbles by North Melbourne on the Gold Coast on Saturday night and by Brisbane at the MCG yesterday, it clearly isn't. But the far more important top four might be.

The two games next weekend to complete the split round 14 shape as season defining. Geelong, even at AAMI Stadium, will go in a warm favourite against Adelaide. Sydney likewise against Collingwood at Telstra Stadium. And if those contests go according to plan, you can all but reduce the premiership to a race in four.

Wins by the Swans and Geelong will leave a yawning 10-point gap between Sydney in fourth spot and Adelaide in fifth, effectively three games. With eight left to play, that would take some significant disrupting of history.

Since the revamp of the final eight in 2000, only top four teams have made it to the grand final. Indeed, only two of 32 teams which have made it to a preliminary final (Hawthorn in 2001 and Collingwood last year) have finished the season proper outside the top four.

A win by the favourites next Friday and Saturday night and you can put your mortgage on a grand final featuring a combination of Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Sydney.

It's mini grand final time in early July for the Crows and Magpies. Both are capable of matching it with that above-mentioned four on their day, the Pies having already stitched up Geelong and last week pushing the Bulldogs all the way, Adelaide having had a shot after the siren to beat the Dogs back in round one and just pipped by Hawthorn a fortnight ago.

But those days simply don't come with the same consistency as that produced by their top-order peers. Which makes them potentially just as vulnerable as those other contenders scrambling around the bottom half of the eight who continue to shoot themselves in the foot.

North Melbourne has managed to sandwich arguably its best win for the year against Hawthorn between two of its poorest performances, the thrashing at the hands of Fremantle in Perth, then Saturday night's costly fadeout against the Saints at Carrara. The road is becoming a real issue for the Kangaroos, their two other interstate games this year also producing sub-par efforts in Adelaide and Brisbane.

As for the Lions, yesterday's upset at the hands of Melbourne might also be season-defining for all the wrong reasons. It's been a reasonable year so far for Leigh Matthews' side, much of it achieved on the back of a potent key forward duo in Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw.

Perhaps too much, B1 and B2 responsible for nine of Brisbane's 13 goals yesterday.

And, what do you know, those on-again, off-again Saints are back in the mix, too, the win over North clearly St Kilda's most significant of 2008. Perhaps there's a second-half surge like last season left in Ross Lyon's team. But perhaps also, by the end of next weekend, the top four out of reach, it won't mean a lot.