THE great grand finals are remembered not by names but numbers. The game referred to simply as '66 is when St Kilda won its first flag, defeating Collingwood by a single point. 1970 is when Ron Barassi famously re-invented the game. What many regard as the last great grand final - the one remembered as '89 - was between Hawthorn and Geelong. Today, they meet in a grand final for the first time since.

The clubs are the same but the teams could hardly be more different. In '89, Hawthorn was the reigning premiers, the champion team of the era. Geelong were the boys from the bush who rode into town on grand final day like the Kelly gang. They had one of the game's native geniuses in Gary Ablett and, in coach Malcolm Blight, one of the game's great forward thinkers. Hawthorn was drilled by a former police sergeant, Allan "Yabbie" Jeans, and had a champion in every line.

Today, those positions are reversed. Geelong is the reigning premier. Nine of its players were in the All-Australian team last year; this year, the figure is seven. That is, in the view of the selectors, one-third of an Australian team would come from the Geelong Football Club. The Cats have won all but two of their past 44 matches. At season's end, for the second year in a row, Gary Ablett Jnr was voted the AFL Player Association's Most Valuable Player Award.

Last year, Ablett was pipped for the Brownlow by teammate Jimmy Bartel. Jimmy combines casual class with an utterly uncompromising attack on the ball. There is debate over whether Geelong's full-back Matthew Scarlett is the best to have ever played in his position. The Cats also have Cameron Ling, the best stopper in the league, Brad Ottens, one of its premier ruckman, and Joel Selwood, whose performances in his second year of AFL football probably helped to cost Ablett this year's Brownlow. Their mid-fielder who is least known, two-time All-Australian Joel Corey, played like a man with eight arms in last week's preliminary final.

In '89, the team which brought the factor of the unknown into the grand final equation was Geelong. No one knew what full-forward Gary Ablett might do. He kicked nine goals, won the Norm Smith Medal and thanked God from the dais. A whole mythology was born of that game involving Ablett and Hawthorn pair Dermott Brereton and Robert DiPierdomenico. Nearly 20 years later, they're using the story of the day in car ads.

But today, the team bringing the unknown into the game is Hawthorn. No one knows what full-forward, Lance "Buddy" Franklin, might do. If the Brownlow was run like Australian Idol, Buddy would be the winner. He is slender, graceful and darkly good looking. He is 200 centimetres tall and weighs 100 kilograms. He is as nimble as a lamb. He can leap small buildings. He may also be carrying a hand injury.

Hawthorn has other fine players. Captain Sam Mitchell can spin on sixpence and kick precision passes of 30 to 40 metres off either foot. Luke Hodge is the riverboat gambler in the last line of defence which, with his keen eye for the odds, he turns into the first line of attack. Hawthorn has four indigenous players - one of these, Cyril Rioli, was bred for this event. In Michael Long and Maurice Rioli, he has uncles on both sides of his family who have won the Norm Smith Medal.

When Cyril Rioli gets the ball, the game transforms around him. The air suddenly buzzes with possibility. Another key player for Hawthorn is Jarred Roughead. "The Buddy Show", as it is known, relies like all popular shows on a solid support cast. Grand finals are often won by players, like Roughead, coming from outside the glare of the pre-game spotlight.

I think Hawthorn has the better forward line. I think Gary Ablett Jnr tilts the balance of the mid-field Geelong's way. Then there's the injuries to consider. What exactly do we know about Croad's foot, Buddy's hand, Hodge's ribs and Chapman's hamstring? Add to this equation of human possibility the history of the two clubs and the themes of family destiny at work in this afternoon's game and I'd say just about anything could happen.