THERE has been a lot of fool's gold in the AFL this week and all because Hawthorn stitched up the Western Bulldogs, and Geelong did a number on St Kilda, to open the finals.

Are we really that surprised? Should too much be read into those results? I suspect not.

At a time when it's easy to be misled by the glitter of one performance, I'm thinking we got what we should have expected as we head towards the inevitable Geelong-Hawthorn grand final.

Don't be mistaken by two predictable results. And don't be too hasty to write off the teams that finished third and fourth at the end of the home-and-away season.

I was interested to study finals results over the past eight years since the AFL adopted the format of 1 versus 4, 2 v 3, 5 v 8 and 6 v 7.

We've seen an even spread of victors in the qualifying finals in the top half of the week-one draw, with the minor premier losing to the fourth-placed team four times in eight years. Oddly, the second-placed team has been less vulnerable, being beaten only twice.

More significantly, only twice in eight years has a top-four side been put out of the finals in straight sets.

The big losers were West Coast last year after it finished third, beaten by second-placed Port Adelaide and sixth-placed Collingwood, and Port in 2001 after it had finished third, beaten by the second-placed Brisbane Lions and sixth-placed Hawthorn.

Put another way, six times in eight years, the top-four sides at the end of the home-and-away season have reached the preliminary final.

That's enough evidence for me to tip the Dogs and the Saints to bounce back.

What did we really learn about the Dogs and the Saints last week?

The Dogs are desperately missing a fit and in-form Tom Williams at centre half-back and don't really have a reliable get-out option of a big forward to bomb it long to under pressure. They need to be right on top of their game in the contested situation if they are to compete with the best opposition.

And the Saints? They rely enormously on Nick Riewoldt up forward.

Hardly earth-shattering discoveries, are they? About as earth-shattering as confirmation the Hawks and the Cats are the best two sides.

If this were a horse race, we'd say the Dogs and the Saints are dropping back in class this week to take on Sydney and Collingwood. Certainly no disrespect to those two sides, just an easier way to explain things

Irrespective, there is a significant bounce-back factor for the two top-four sides.

Rodney Eade and Ross Lyon would have moved on very quickly from their losses. They would have done as they did every week through the season — evaluate their performance, put it behind them and look forward.

The preliminary final is the only week when four teams start at zero. All with an equal chance. So Collingwood, the Bulldogs, Sydney and St Kilda will be fighting for that right.

There is no need to stress the importance of the next game in September. Each is between two teams as hungry as hell to do well.

But there is an intriguing question in week two of the finals — is pain or pleasure a stronger motivation?

Will the Swans and the Magpies be more motivated this week because they beat lesser-ranked teams last week? Or will the Dogs and the Saints be in a better head space because they were beaten?

There is no definitive answer. Yet when we talk about kicks and handballs, marks and spoils, it is still the one factor we can't predict.

Some players will play a significant role in their team's chances to go that extra step.

For St Kilda, much will rest with Riewoldt, who almost single-handedly got the Saints going 10 weeks ago, but had a very quiet game last week. He's one person who will be driven by the pain. To suggest they need him to lift is like saying Geelong is a classy outfit. But he'll be patently aware of that and I'm tipping he will.

It's not so easy to identify the Bulldogs' barometer but I've chosen Robert Murphy as the most critical figure. If you see him getting on the end of it and turning his opponent inside out, you know things are going well for the Dogs.

For Sydney, the crunch player is Barry Hall. If he's involved in a lot of one-on-one contests, he'll win his share and that'll be enough for Paul Roos. Just as it was in the second half last week against North.

At Collingwood, the key figure is Scott Burns. He's such a great leader because he sets the benchmark in the middle of the ground and elevates the performance of the entire team.