BEFORE we get too far, let's get one thing straight. I've got no inside mail on what Jonathan Brown will do with his next contract and I've never spoken to the big fella about what has become one of the AFL's hottest talking points.

I'm just like anyone else following the Brown contract situation.

It's an intriguing business that has already proved a football rarity because it is being played out privately, without weekly media updates and comments for either party.

Aside from Browny's early-season comment that his preferred option was to re-sign with the Lions, he's given us nothing. Likewise, his long-time contract manager Glen Warry, former Fitzroy football manager and close family friend. Well done. It's the way it should be.

The low information stream has forced others to fill in the blanks and build a growing momentum in Victoria around the mouth-watering prospect of the Victorian captain returning to his home state.

Potential trades, clubs, money and terms have been tossed up endlessly yet nothing has been confirmed.

It's become all about perception driving reality. And perception is that the longer the whole thing goes the more likely it is that Brown will leave. Wrong!

Browny has said only one thing — he wants a deal that will make him a Lion for life.

We have assumed this means a five-year contract, but I'm not convinced.

Who's to say his one statement wasn't more about the passion and loyalty he has for his club, his confidence in the direction the club is going, and simply that he wants to be a one-club player?

I'm sure Browny watched with interest the magnificent 300-game celebrations of Shane Crawford and Andrew McLeod last weekend. It could only have been a warming reminder of the joys that are reserved for one-club players.

But instead the Brown/Brisbane story has been twisted. The Lions' apparent unwillingness to offer a five-year deal is a direct spin-off from the club's lack of confidence in the champion forward's body.

Or so we are meant to believe. It's a long bow to draw.

No, I'd suggest it is not about one man but more a philosophical view and the widespread opinion among clubs that five years doesn't give them much insurance should something happen.

I've recently experienced the anti-five-year view first hand.

The Lions are not long out of a salary cap hangover that followed three consecutive premierships and a serious crack at winning a fourth. Back-ended contracts were the norm. It was a justified gamble but it made it difficult for the club to make too much progress with new and younger players.

Now the debate about whether to go down much the same track has become a bigger story than the club's drive to the finals. That's disappointing.

For Browny, a triple premiership player at 21, the quandary is even more complex because it's not just about him and his club. Because of who he is, and the status he enjoys, it is about a message for the entire Brisbane playing group.

Just as the leaders through the early '90s had a huge bearing on me as a young player, what the big No. 16 does will have a massive impact on the values and actions of younger players who look to him for leadership.

Like Michael Rischitelli, one of the few Lions players in good form lately and out of contract at the end of the season. Melbourne clubs chased him hard two years ago and will be circling again.

It wouldn't leave a good message if the captain decided to leave. It's a huge burden for a leader to carry — and it sucks — but it comes with the territory.

In an era when the draft and the salary cap make it rare for marquee players to change clubs, Chris Judd is proof it can happen. The question for Browny if it all breaks down in Brisbane is how?

Melbourne is out of the question. Not only has he reportedly said no, but the rebuilding Demons say they won't trade for him.

If Brown leaves Brisbane it'll be via a trade. And don't kid yourself it's just Collingwood and Carlton. If the possibility of snaring the powerhouse forward was real then others would quickly get involved.

I cannot see Brown, Judd and Brendan Fevola in the same salary cap at Carlton.

Essendon? Nothing official but I reckon they'd be quickly into the race. Others likewise.

Collingwood? Where there's smoke, there's fire. The Pies had an almighty crack at Brown a few years ago and they'll do it again given any encouragement.

A five-year deal would be a good investment for the Pies even if he only played four. The benefits would far outweigh the possibility of getting caught short at the end.

The Western Bulldogs could do with a giant at that end of the ground so don't think they wouldn't be in the mix, too. But how does he get there?

Carlton had the upper hand in the Judd deal because it had first pick in the draft. Once the 2004 Brownlow medallist declared he wanted to join the Blues then West Coast was obliged to do a trade or risk losing their best player for nothing.

The Pies won't have the same leverage. So if Judd was worth picks 3 and 20 in the national draft and Josh Kennedy, a quality young player, Collingwood may have to offer much more for Brown.

There was a genuine go-home factor in Judd's return to Melbourne — it's not the same for Brown. Home to him is the family farm at Koroit, near Warrnambool.

That's not to say there isn't a curiosity for the country boy about playing in Melbourne. Even as a Queenslander, with family all around me in Brisbane, I often thought it would have been terrific to sample life in "football central".

There are a lot of cards to be played.

As much as Browny hasn't set the time frame the pressure is building on him to make a decision.

I don't think it will be five years, so if that is the breaking point then he'll have a big call to make. I can't see him leaving so I'm tipping a compromise — a pretty good four-year contract with the Lions.