THERE'S no question that the Kangaroos and Hawthorn have been two of the good news items of season 2007. Sadly, there's equally no question that they also could end up as the biggest hard-luck stories.

Back in March, the Roos were viewed almost universally as, at best, a bottom-four team; at worst, likely wooden spooners.

The Hawks were on the improve, but still seen very much as a work in progress.

The Roos have defied all popular expectations with their greater fitness, improved attacking game plan and stellar performances from some of their oldest and youngest hands. Hawthorn, meanwhile, appears to have jumped a few rungs on the development ladder in double-quick time.

Second and third spots on the AFL ladder are a fitting reward. Hanging on to those positions for another month, however, might prove a greater challenge than any test either has passed to date.

Geelong aside, so tenuous are the holds on the rest of the spots in the top four that the second-placed Roos easily could find themselves sixth by this Sunday afternoon, the Hawks potentially as low as seventh.

The Roos are still a game clear of their rivals, but their failure to put beaten opponents to the sword for much of this season could come back to bite.

Before its round-16 win over Melbourne, not one of Dean Laidley's team's previous 10 victories had come by any more than 26 points, while a 10-goal loss in Perth to West Coast and a 45-point defeat at the hands of Adelaide also conspired to drive its percentage down.

With close to another three points shaved off during last Saturday night's loss in Brisbane, the Roos' percentage lags clearly behind three of those four rivals in the pack a game behind.

A loss to West Coast at Telstra Dome on Sunday, combined with a Hawthorn win over the Brisbane Lions, a Port Adelaide defeat of Carlton and a comfortable Collingwood win over Richmond on Friday night, all very feasible results, would be enough to push the Roos down four spots in the eight.

With a game against Geelong to follow the next week, Carlton, then the Western Bulldogs in the final round, potentially playing for a finals berth themselves and in what would be their skipper Brad Johnson's 300th game should he overcome a hamstring niggle this week, that's a pretty sobering prospect.

Hawthorn's tumble should it lose even narrowly to flavour-of-the-month Brisbane at the MCG on Saturday could be every bit as dramatic if the Power, Eagles and Magpies were to get up, and seventh-placed Sydney — whose percentage is second-best in the competition — beats St Kilda at Telstra Stadium on Saturday night.

And seventh is hardly the position from which you'd want to be attacking a final three weeks taking in Port Adelaide, the Bulldogs and Sydney on the SCG — the latter pair already having beaten the Hawks first time round this season.

But no final-eight contender can afford a stumble now, particularly not Brisbane. While the Lions could present flag-favourite Geelong with as good a challenge as anyone, they have enough of their own remaining in a position to do so.

Knock over the Hawks, and there's still Sydney, Adelaide away and the Cats themselves to come. Survive that lot and Brisbane, another popular fancy pre-season for a slot in the bottom four, would have to be a fair chance to inflict some serious September damage.

It's a battle Geelong must be grateful to have avoided. The Cats will wrap up top spot should they beat Adelaide at home on Sunday.

The view looks pretty good from the top, but even Geelong will be casting a keen eye over the scrap going on beneath it and, you suspect, barracking hardest for teams playing West Coast.

The Eagles' loss to Fremantle on Sunday could yet prove costly, but even another this week to the Roos won't fatally damage their hopes of a home final and a double chance.

Richmond, St Kilda and Essendon, the former and latter of that trio at Subiaco, is West Coast's equation after this weekend.

Victories by enough in all three, and even one slip-up by Hawthorn, could still put the Eagles through to fourth, a whisker ahead of the Hawks on percentage.

That wouldn't only be the cause of much angst for Alastair Clarkson's young team, but much anxiety for half-a-dozen other finalists, too.