Five credible flag challengers have emerged, with five different game plans designed to topple Geelong. Who has what it takes to kill the Cats?
TAKING on Geelong last season for other AFL clubs was a lot like how the Australian cricket team felt tackling the might of the West Indies back in the 1980s.
There was hope, there were carefully laid plans. Ultimately, however, there was disappointment, the undisputed champs crushing any challenger with an intimidating arsenal of firepower and a proven method the Windies knew like the back of their hand.
It was a psychological as much as physical stranglehold, one maintained in a series of crushing defeats until the Australians were able to first reach, then pass, the heights to which their awesome opponent had raised the bar.
Halfway through season 2008, the Cats are still on top of the ladder, still leading the AFL for disposals, contested possession, inside 50s. But what isn't as pronounced is the smell of fear instilled in their opponents.
Geelong hasn't managed to beat up on its rivals with the same alacrity this season. Its peers are smelling at least some chance of a dethroning. And this year, there's more of them. In 2007, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Collingwood and the Kangaroos were still feeling their way in elite company. Now the Hawks know what they're about being at the top of the ladder.
So do the Magpies. The Western Bulldogs are back in the top flight, more mature and clearly ready for a crack. And Sydney and Adelaide know the finals stage and what September takes very, very well.
They're all coming after the Cats, having refined, tinkered and, in some cases, significantly altered their approaches to catching the pacesetter.
Five genuine rivals to Geelong's crown have done a mountain of homework not only on their own requirements, but on the pros and cons of the other would-be challengers. And The Age spoke this week to those contenders' coaches and strategists to get the inside mail on just how they're going about the task of toppling the AFL's king.
THE HAWKS have been masterful in implementing the season's biggest tactical talking point, the rolling defensive zone. Hawthorn forces its opponents to play wide by forming a central grid of up to 15 players, which slides laterally across the ground to block space.
Opponents have two realistic options - go round it, or over the top with a handball and long kick. It's the key to the Hawks because their one Achilles heel is a back line that has proved vulnerable should the defensive 50 be penetrated.
But that doesn't happen often because no side concedes fewer entries than Alastair Clarkson's. Only the Western Bulldogs have so far brought the zone undone, a game a rival senior coach watched with interest. "It gave you hope," he says. "It's a system coming from soccer and basketball, but they're played on much smaller areas, so there's still enough room in AFL to find some space. "Their half-backs will come up to support the zone, so if you get over it, you can catch them out behind it."
Beyond the tactical chicanery, and an improved rate of scoring from stoppages, the Hawks' success is pretty simple. A great pool of talent extremely well coached by Clarkson, which has managed this season to survive an at-times draining run of injuries to key players, Brad Sewell now missing for an extended spell after Luke Hodge's strained hamstring kept him out for a time. But the midfi eld depth is impressive, Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead are a key forward duo to die for, and the zone allows the most important midfield runners to cover less territory end-to-end and, thus, remain fresher at game's end.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
IT'S THE Western Bulldogs' vastly improved hardness at the contest that has rightly attracted much attention this season. Rodney Eade's side is ranked second for contested possession, up from a mediocre equal-ninth last year. But that's far from the only factor opposition scouts have noted in the Dogs' rapid resurgence up the ladder.
The recruitment of Adelaide's Ben Hudson, a big clearance winner himself, has enabled the Dogs to become something of a stop-play specialist. In 2008, no team kicks more goals from stoppages than the Doggies. Last year, only two kicked fewer.
Hudson also allows Eade more scope to create height mismatches where it counts, up forward, where opponents never quite know just what, or whom, they're going to get, as many as seven or eight players rotated through full-forward. "They try to isolate defenders and get mismatches happening, and they do it really, really well," says one rival club coach. "By having Will Minson at full-forward, they try to get you to have one extra tall.
Then Hudson goes off, Minson goes into the ruck, and they bring on another small or medium-sized player into the forward line." No one seems to have as many runners as the Dogs, the likes of Nathan Eagleton used as late-quarter "shock-troopers" with great effect.
All that run, and spread of potential spearheads and goalkickers, makes defensive match-ups for opponents a real guessing game, one which, with the Bulldogs the AFL's highest-scoring team, they are clearly losing.
A fit Robert Murphy and Jason Akermanis, and the increased maturity of Adam Cooney and Ryan Griffen, are the icing on what even often sceptical club strategists believe could prove a premiership cake. Every year, it seems, we, the pundits, underestimate the Swans' prospects. Stupidly, we don't listen to the real experts inside the clubs, who just as routinely rate Paul Roos' team a lot higher. With very sound reasoning. Look at Sydney's current rankings.
First for clearances, first for tackles, fewest points conceded, by a street. In all the most important defensive measures, the Swans are the best in the caper. This season, they loom larger again, having improved their attacking qualities, scoring significantly more than last season, generating a lot more run and carry via linkmen Tadhg Kennelly, Nick Malceski and important recruiting pickup Martin Mattner, and winning a far higher percentage of loose balls as well as their trademark contested ball. Sydney is quicker, the likes of Ben Mathews and Nic Fosdike overlooked for better runners such as Ed Barlow and Kieren Jack. And signifi cantly, says one senior coach who kept a close eye on the Swans' pre-season, much fitter and healthier. "Last year, it all caught up with them a bit," he says. "I've watched them train a fair bit over the years, and this year, there was no doubt they were far more intense for that time than they've ever been. There's no huge difference in what they're doing now, they're just doing it better than they have for a while." The strategists say the Swans' vulnerability remains the ability of defenders such as Leo Barry and Ted Richards to compete aerially one-onone. But getting the ball in quickly enough for that apparent weakness to be fully tested remains the problem for opponents. "When you win a contest against the Swans, you have to slam it on your boot quickly, and the ball doesn't come in with any substance or depth," says the coach. "It means even if they're undersized, their defenders have always got a chance."
ADELAIDE CROWS
FEW, if any, teams have confounded the experts in 2008 like the Crows, roundly tipped to begin sliding down the ladder as age and weariness set in but instead out of the top four only on percentage.
Few have dared mention the Crows as prospective premiers, certainly not the bookmakers, who have them a lucrative $21 for the flag.
But club insiders have them a very realistic chance. Adelaide, they say, is well coached by Neil Craig, organised and has added important strings to its bow. Like attack. The Crows ranked a miserable 15th for points scored last year and is now sixth, nearly three goals a game better off. And flexibility.
The likes of Nathan van Berlo, Bernie Vince and Jason Porplyzia play important midfi eld roles, allowing veterans Andrew McLeod, Simon Goodwin and Tyson Edwards to do their stuff elsewhere. There have been improvements in efficiency, the Crows making fewer kicking errors than any rival, and this season conceding fewer inside 50s than any rival bar Hawthorn.
The essentials, however, remain the same. The fundamental plank of Adelaide's method is all about outnumbering the opposition.
"Their half-forwards play like extra midfielders, the wingmen drop back, so they always get an extra number to a stoppage or at least a spare man in defence," explains a senior AFL coach. "At their best, they move the ball so quickly. They get numbers behind the ball carrier, then it's just this massive overlap and run, like a wave. It's a really good brand of footy." Good enough, agree the Crows' rivals, if not the punters and pundits, to make an Adelaide premiership win far from the pipedream it looked back in March.
MAGPIES
THE MAGPIES have won one fewer game and, in sixth position on the AFL ladder, are two spots lower than they were at the same time last year, but their premiership aspirations are being taken more seriously now by rivals than they were then for a very good reason - they're the one side in a seasonand- a-half that has been able to give Geelong a serious belting.
Collingwood's 86-point thumping of the Cats in round nine remains the signature performance of the season, and for Geelong's challengers, easily the most instructive. The Pies drowned the Cats in a sea of hard, driving tackling, laying an astonishing 85 of them that Friday evening last month, a video Geelong's opponents will study over and over.
"They might have struggled for consistency, but when they hit it right, they are a very good side that always seems to get up for the big games," one AFL club senior strategist said. And a serious flag chance?
"Absolutely." The hard-working essentials remain the same for Collingwood in 2008, but there's more flair and pace about the midfield with both Leon Davis and Dale Thomas spending far more time in there.
Even with Anthony Rocca injured and Travis Cloke not having reached the same heights as last season, Collingwood is averaging four more goals a game, while there's also been a big improvement in scoring accuracy, the Pies going from a dismal ranking of 15th in 2007 to equal-second now.
Strategists say injuries to and the subsequent form loss of adaptable defender Tyson Goldsack has been a big and underestimated loss, exposing Harry O'Brien. Goldsack and Rocca's return at the other end give the Pies perhaps more scope for continued improvement than their rivals, a possibility opponents are treating very seriously.
ANALYSIS
IT'S taken a good half-season to sink in, but now finally even the most sceptical football pundits are acknowledging what they refused to believe for so long - that the Western Bulldogs are a very serious premiership chance.
The clubs who actually plan, plot and prepare to take on premier Geelong and the other genuine flag contenders have known it for a while.
Said one AFL club tactician and coach this week whose own team is very much in the running: "If you played the finals right now, they'd have to be favourite to take on Geelong. And I reckon they might just about win it, too."
We will have a better idea when those two clubs meet in round 16. But the "wouldn't you love to see them win it" army behind the Doggies is growing, and not just for sentimental reasons. Of course, it would be a great, romantic story, only one premiership in the club's cupboard, won all of 54 years ago. But a Western Bulldogs flag would also be a victory for daring, and for football evolution.
Two years ago, when Rodney Eade's side was last looking healthy, it did so against a backdrop of often barely concealed disdain from those scared by the unconventional. "Too small, too light, no key forwards," became something of a mantra among the cognoscenti, and when it all fell apart towards the end of last season under a weight on injuries to key players, the "told you so's" were deafening. Annoying, too. The Bulldogs played a beautiful brand of football, quick, skilful, at times breathtaking to watch. It came undone through lack of players far more so than a fundamental flaw in philosophy. Which, now the key men are fit and firing, is being shown again to be very viable.
Yes, the Bulldogs have done some necessary fine-tuning, toughening up and winning a far greater slice of contested ball.
Yes, they're grittier. But neither has the attractiveness or unorthodoxy been traded in. The run and skills of Adam Cooney, Ryan Griffen, Lindsay Gilbee and Daniel Giansiracusa are tremendous to watch. Up forward, a constantly rotating group of smaller, but very capable, goalkickers is leaving opponents befuddled. Scott Welsh and Will Minson aren't classic key forwards, but they don't need to be when you have as many as nine players averaging a goal a game or better.
And in defence, the likes of Tom Williams and Andrejs Everitt are raw and inexperienced, but still getting the job done capably. The Bulldog blend continues to challenge some football maxims held dearly by some slightly bitter cynics who don't enjoy seeing the status quo upset nor their cliched view of the game challenged. But they had better get used to it. The Doggies aren't going away. And a premiership in three months would please just as many lovers of football played skilfully and with flair as it would those who simply love a good fairytale.
