History is against the Magpies and the Roos as they head into enemy territory where the challenge isn't just physical.
GRAND final day isn't upon us for three weeks, but for Collingwood and NorthMelbourne, itmay as well have arrived thismorning.
Overcoming the enormous obstacle represented by peerless reigning premier Geelong is clearly the biggest challenge for any finals contender this September.
But even beating the Cats can't be that much tougher than the tasks confronting the Magpies and Kangaroos today.
Both are coming off potentially morale- shattering finalround losses that not only cost thema top-four spot, condemning themto cut-throat elimination finals, but finals they'll be playing in enemy territory, in Adelaide and Sydney.
Is there a bigger ask for a Victorian club than winning a final played interstate? Figures suggest not.
It's little wonder such victories as Collingwood's defeat in 2002 of top team Port Adelaide in a qualifying final at AAMI Stadium, or St Kilda's similar upset of ladder leader Adelaide at the same ground in the same fixture three years later, are enshrined among the proudest moments in either club's history.
Victorian clubs have played 29 finals outside this state since Hawthorn beat West Coast in Perth in the first interstate AFL final back in 1991.
The visitors have won only six, about 21%, and there was a 10-year period between that first final away fromMelbourne and the next victory by a visiting Victorian team in September.
That ain't a great strike-rate.
And, significantly, it's a lot lower than the 35% of wins this state's teams have notched up across the premiership season for the past decade.
Winning on the road is far more common as clubs get better at handling travel routines, different environments and time zones.
But it's still no picnic.
Particularly in September, with the huge stakes attached to a final, and visitors facing a fiercely parochial crowd even more rabid than usual.
All of which makesHawthorn's upset of West Coast in that first non-Victorian final celebrated almost as keenly by the Hawks as any of their nine premierships.
The Eagleswere a juggernaut in 1991, on top all year, losing only three home-and-away games, three wins ahead of the second-placedHawks, whom they'd beaten comfortably at the same venue three weeks earlier.
But this Sunday final would produce a different script.
Perth's fervour surrounding its seemingly premiership destined club provided for a still relatively young team its own suffocating pressure.
And the Hawks, with little to lose, added plenty of their own.
Hawthorn triple premiership player Andy Collins can still remember it like yesterday.
"We felt that was going to be our grand final, knowing the real grand final was going to be played atWaverley," he recalls.
"We knew our finals experience was really going to help us, and I remember we hit them really hard.
It was a tactic to come really hard at themearly.
We got right in their faces that day, not verbally so much but just by our pressure.
Our tackling game was right on that day.
"What that game a few weeks earlier did was allow us some familiarity with the environment.
'Joycey' (coach Alan Joyce) spoke very strongly about that.
West Coast was going so well, but we'd actually performed OK that day without winning.
"The older, more mature players in that side had a good feel for the younger players, and I can remember feeling really comfortable about the return trip."
Hawks young and old fired beautifully as the visitors got home by 23 points, Jason Dunstall kicked four goals, Paul Hudson three and young ruckman Stephen Lawrence played the game of his life with 26 hitouts, 30 disposals and 14marks.
The win left the Hawks one win froma grand final berth, the Eagles sentenced to three consecutive Melbourne finals to win their first flag.
MickMalthouse's young teamwon two.
But couldn't cope with the by now super-confident Hawthorn again come grand final day, crashing by 53 points.
Malthouse and his men would have their turn in the sun the following year when they became the first non-Victorian team to win an AFL premiership.
A decade on,Malthouse would again be a central figure in another of finals football's great interstate finals wins, Collingwood's upset of raging favourite Port Adelaide in the 2002 qualifying final.
Former Magpie skipper Nathan Buckley never played in a premiership, but says the Pies' 13-point win that September night felt close to one, even though the he was injured and sitting in the AAMI Stadium stands.
"That was as disciplined a team performance as I've witnessed, and one of the best memories of my career," he declares.
"We played 120 minutes of disciplined football that night.
There wasn't even 30 seconds of respite for Port ..."
Buckley unwittingly played his part in the lead-up to the famous victory, even while nursing a strained hamstring, Malthouse having said early in the week that his injured captain wouldn't start, an announcement his coaching rival Mark Williams declared a ruse.
No such thing, laughs Buckley.
" 'Choco' thought he (Malthouse) was foxing.
He wasn't, just stating facts."
Buckley's absence might have been fatal, as might the Pies' ordinary form in the lead-up, winning only three of their previous eight games.
Instead, Collingwood was able to shrug both to record one of its greatest wins.
In a decision that has probably resonated with North Melbourne coach Dean Laidley (then an assistant at Collingwood) after last week's disaster at the hands of Port Adelaide, Malthouse chose to all but ignore his team's most recent mediocre performances.
"He didn't want to know about what had happened in the home-and-away, he just said this was a totally new season," Buckley recalls.
"He set an agenda to make sure our focus was forward and about playing our best football over the nextmonth rather than talking about what had happened the previous couple of weeks.
"He said we'd given ourselves a real opportunity to have a genuine crack at it, and that's what we did."
The Pies had heroes everywhere, none bigger than midfielder Paul Licuria, who not only kept pivotal Port Adelaide midfielder Josh Francou in check but had 40 possessions of his own, or Ben Johnson, whose desperate goal square tackle on Peter Burgoyne in the final minutes probably saved the game.
Collingwood eventually crept within an agonising nine points of the Brisbane Lions on grand final day and Buckley won the Norm Smith Medal with one of his greatest performances.
But that game spent sitting in enemy heartland injured remains a more cherishedmemory.
"I was sitting next to Mark Richardson, and there was a lot of byplay with a couple of Port supporters nearby, you almost felt like you had to have that niggle to let out a bit of emotion and energy.
"I don't reckon I've been prouder of a group of blokes than I was that night.
The circle in the rooms afterwards, singing the song, was massive, basically everyone in the rooms.
Just one of those golden moments.
" Buckley has genuine hope for the Magpies this afternoon.
Collingwood has had some big wins at AAMI Stadium before.
It likes the ground, the rooms.
That's something North Melbourne won't be able to take to ANZ Stadium tonight, a ground it has never played before.
But the Kangaroos, like the Magpies, love nothing more than to pull out the biggest of performances when least expected.
"Themental challenge is definitely a bigger issue with interstate results now than the physical aspect is," Buckley says.
"In the end, the only reason you can't perform interstate now is because you can't get over the psychological hurdle."
Of which that figure of six wins by Victorian teams from 29 tries is just another.
One that, should it become eight from31 by tonight, we'll know has been cleared comprehensively.





