FEAR among AFL clubs about the prospect of losing a stack of uncontracted players to the Gold Coast is unfounded. Why? Because history tells you it just won't happen.

So much so that the recruiting concessions for the 17th AFL club should be more about early draft picks than access to uncontracted players.

This is a hot talking point in AFL circles, and each of the 16 clubs will have a view.

While publicly keen to support expansion, they will be anxious to protect their own turf. And rightly so. It's their job.

After accepting an advisory role with the GC17 bid team, I've found myself right in the middle of all this.

I'm still feeling my way through the mountain of relevant data and information but if you believe the reported recruiting concessions that might be offered to the Gold Coast, they'll have access to a stack of Queenslanders over the next three years and access to 10 uncontracted players at the end of 2010.

The uncontracted player allowance is causing most grief among existing clubs and understandably so.

They wouldn't want to lose for nothing a player in whom they've invested significant resources.

While it's always going to be part of the concession package, I suspect they're worrying a little unnecessarily because the Gold Coast would find it hard to lure 10 uncontracted players.

After all, it's more than the two latest expansion clubs, Port Adelaide and Fremantle, could use.

When Fremantle joined the AFL in 1995, it had access to 12 uncontracted players over three years. Reading from my trusty AFL Guide, I find that the first year they got one — Ben Allan.

In the second year, it got six — Andrew Wills, Jason Norrish, Brendan Krummel, Peter Mann, Stephen O'Reilly and Todd Ridley. And in year three, it got one more — Tony Godden.

What's the common denominator? All but Wills were West Australians returning home.

When Port Adelaide joined the AFL in 1997, it had access to four uncontracted players.

It recruited Matthew Primus, Gavin Wanganeen, Adam Heuskes and Ian Downsborough.

That was one ex-Fitzroy player without a club after rejecting Brisbane, two South Australians returning home, and a West Australian who played only seven games for the Power before moving on.

And don't forget — these are two states rich in football culture, history and heritage. The Gold Coast is largely virgin territory.

While it looks nice on paper to offer the Gold Coast access to 10 uncontracted players, reality is that it isn't such a big thing.

Sure, some Queenslanders might want to return home, but otherwise, unless there is a strong rush on very disgruntled players, those concessions won't be worth all that much.

It'll be a key bargaining tool for player managers and will drive some inflated player salaries, but generally franchise players and top-end players just don't switch clubs too often. Chris Judd is the exception.

If the AFL is fair dinkum about wanting to help the Gold Coast club build a competitive playing list from the outset, it needs to load up the allowances in the national draft.

It'll be a twofold thing. First, the new club will draft some good young players. Second, it will use other top draft picks to trade for established players.

That's a better alternative for the existing clubs because they'll get something in return. As they should.

Right now, the 16 AFL clubs have between eight and 14 first-round draft picks on their list. The Gold Coast should end up with something comparable after it has finalised its list.

Young Queenslanders will be the cream on the concession package but there's no way they can be anything more. Again, history says that as much as the AFL has made massive headway in south-east Queensland, the depth and consistency of talent is not there. Consider these statistics.

■Since 2000, a total of 33 Queenslanders have been drafted and 38 Queenslanders have been rookie-listed.

■Of those 71, only 36 have played AFL football and 14 of the 36 have not played more than 10 games.

■Of the 33 draftees, a third came in one year — 2006.

■In 2002, only one Queenslander was considered by the 16 clubs to be of draftable quality.

■Only three Queenslanders new to the system since 2000 have played 100 AFL games — Nick Riewoldt (141), Robert Copeland (135) and Jamie Charman (112).

■Another seven have played 50 games — Brad Miller (98), David Hale (86), Michael Osborne (84), Daniel Pratt (69), Ben Hudson (63), Daniel Merrett (54) and Andrew Raines (54).

Much of AFL Queensland's talented player program is about recruiting elite athletes from other sports, and providing a clear pathway that in time will prove enormously beneficial for the code. Three years ago, Adelaide's Kurt Tippett was a Queensland Academy of Sport basketballer. Tom Williams, of the Western Bulldogs, was a Queensland Secondary Schools rugby player. And Brisbane's Merrett played cricket, volleyball and touch at school.

Yes, they will be good, long-term AFL players. Likewise Raines, David Armitage, Ricky Petterd, Courtenay Dempsey and Rhan Hooper.

And others I've not seen enough of to include.

But a new AFL club can't afford to rely too heavily on the possibility that more than a couple of good young Queenslanders will pop up each year.

There's also going to be the issue that the best young Queensland prospects might not want to put their dreams on hold until 2011.

Kids today live for now.

They want to get into the AFL system as quickly as possible and it's going to take some pretty special AFL incentives for them to go into a prolonged holding pattern.

It's all part of a complicated situation that will take some unravelling by the AFL before it finds a solution satisfactory to the new club and tolerable to the 16 existing clubs. The devil is still in the detail.